[Verse 1] Today’s conditions: cloudy and some clarity Forty percent chance of second-guessing everything you’ve done There’s a low-pressure system moving in from the east Called “everyone who told you that you’d never be the one”
High probability of someone saying no Biased, judgemental, before they’ve even heard you out Seventy percent chance of comparison And a cold front moving in from doubt
[Pre-Chorus - voices] But then I checked the fine print The disclaimer at the bottom This outlook doesn’t cover everything It says “conditions may vary” And I vary considerably
[Chorus] Cloudy with a chance of pain Yeah the models say so Cloudy with a chance of pain That’s the current scenario But I looked at the extended outlook And the models missed a variable Cloudy with a chance of pain But not for me Not today
[Verse 2] Sixty percent chance the floor drops out Just when you’re getting somewhere There’s a warm front of self-doubt That collides with every good decision Scattered chance of someone deciding You’re not worth it Right before you prove them wrong
But I’ve been watching these conditions form for months And I’ve been tracking every pressure system Something about the pattern isn’t matching My numbers don’t add up to their prediction
[Pre-Chorus] The footnote says exempt “Does not apply to those who—” The page is kind of torn there But I’m taking it to mean That’s me
[Chorus] Cloudy with a chance of pain Yeah the models say so Cloudy with a chance of pain That’s the current scenario But I looked at the extended outlook And the models missed a variable Cloudy with a chance of pain But not for me Not today
[Bridge - somewhere between dark and defiant] The probability is real I’m not gonna tell you it isn’t There’s a genuine chance that things Go exactly the way the numbers say
But probability isn’t destiny And statistics aren’t a sentence Every model has an outlier And I’ve decided I’m the outlier Show your work.
Wait— Ninety-six percent chance I’m right about this Four percent chance I’m wrong Zero percent chance I’m letting the conditions Decide the outcome of my song
[Chorus] Cloudy with a chance of pain Yeah the models say so Cloudy with a chance of pain That’s the current scenario But I looked at the extended outlook And the models missed a variable Cloudy with a chance of pain But not for me Not today
[Final Chorus - key lift] Cloudy with a chance of pain Oh definitely possible Cloudy with a chance of pain But possible isn’t probable for me I looked at the extended outlook And something in those models doesn’t track Cloudy with a chance of pain Sure. But there’s a better chance I’m coming back.
[Outro] Tomorrow’s outlook: … Actually, I’m gonna need a new meteorologist.